PredictionBook

PredictionBook is a site to record and track your predictions.

How sure are you?

Rather than just recording what you think will happen, PredictionBook allows you to record just how sure you are that it will happen. You can distinguish between those things you think will probably occur, and those things you're really really sure will occur. If you're properly calibrated, you'll be able to see that about 60% of the things you're 60% sure will happen, do happen, and 90% of the things you're 90% sure will happen, do happen.
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matthewfallshaw
trikeappsii
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2 votes Vote

Makes predictions searchable

trikeappsii, 18.11.2011, 22:46
1 comment
2 votes Vote

Implement a password reset feature.

I forgot my password, and now there's no way for me to access my account. Password reset is a critical feature for any website that involves logging in.
trikeappsii, 18.11.2011, 23:02
0 comments
1 vote Vote

Tags

would be cool to be able to tag predictions (really cool to see how my private predictions are influenced with emotions)
trikeappsii, 16.11.2011, 17:53
0 comments
1 vote Vote

all that reddit stuff (hide, new, hot, [recommended] etc.)

all that reddit stuff (hide, new, hot, [recommended] etc.). basically customisable per user views.. needs user accounts - hot predictions view - new predictions view - user predictions vew - controversial predictions view - unjudged...
trikeappsii, 18.11.2011, 23:05
0 comments
1 vote Vote

allow predictions in odds, rather than percentage

Humans understand odds better than percentages - let me say 7:3, rather than 70%.
trikeappsii, 18.11.2011, 23:08
1 comment
1 vote Vote

have a usersuggest-like input field

see the “I suggest you…” field at the top. have the user enter “I predict, that” and then ajax-suggest likely candidates to prevent entering of duplicates
trikeappsii, 18.11.2011, 23:10
0 comments
1 vote Vote

Change the confidence/accuracy histogram

Make the confidence/accuracy histogram run from 0% to 100% instead of 50% to 100%. Some people may be differently miscalibrated when typing "10%" than when typing "90%". A perfect mathematician who has fully internalized the laws of probability...
trikeappsii, 18.11.2011, 23:13
4 comments
1 vote Vote

predictions on someone else

allow predictions on someone else's behalf I want to be able to record a prediction someone else made, without that polluting my record, like "Obama said '…'". I'd love to be able to track those, somehow.
trikeappsii, 18.11.2011, 23:43
2 comments
0 votes Vote

move the judgement section

move the judgement section to a place where it can't be confused with the betting. the judgement section, right above the betting on the idea, is easy to hit by accident.
trikeappsii, 18.11.2011, 22:48
0 comments
0 votes Vote

Allow decimals on predictions (99.99%)

Integer predictions are fine in the 5-95% range, but some things deserve more precision (the world really will not end when LHC is turned on, but 100% is reserved for people who don't understand large numbers).
trikeappsii, 18.11.2011, 22:50
1 comment
0 votes Vote

Hide previous guesses

Have a tab and 'reveal' button hiding existing confidence levels, so you're not primed to if you agree with the existing guesses.
trikeappsii, 18.11.2011, 23:06
1 comment
0 votes Vote

have twitter integration (@predictionbook)

so anyone could “twit” a prediction @predictionbook where it gets recorded. that would be a good marketing move, get all the twitter-web2.0-weenies to try it out predictionbook could then respond to that “twit” with a URL where that...
trikeappsii, 18.11.2011, 23:09
0 comments
0 votes Vote

Dramatically raise the character limit for comment

Dramatically raise the character limit for comments on predictions. Threaded comments. There needs to be space to debate and share evidence. The ability to reply to specific comments and estimations is also crucial. I want to be able to reply to...
trikeappsii, 18.11.2011, 23:11
0 comments
0 votes Vote

have an iphone app

so you can make predictions from anywhere
trikeappsii, 18.11.2011, 23:11
0 comments
0 votes Vote

Line up the table and the graph

Line up the table and the graph to reduce confusion
trikeappsii, 18.11.2011, 23:12
0 comments
0 votes Vote

Add 95% and 99% columns to charts and tables.

Currently, there are a lot of predictions for "incredible" things like the end of the world at 99%. These currently get put in the 90% column, driving it up and making people look miscalibrated.
trikeappsii, 18.11.2011, 23:15
0 comments
0 votes Vote

Make the interval size adjustable

Make the interval size adjustable on the confidence/accuracy histogram. Currently the interval size is fixed at 10%. The most useful interval size varies with a number of factors, including sample size and the numeracy of the person reading the...
trikeappsii, 18.11.2011, 23:15
0 comments
0 votes Vote

Add documentation

It is still not entirely clear how everything works. Surely someone could take 30 minutes to write up a short but EXPLICIT description of what each feature actually does.
trikeappsii, 18.11.2011, 23:16
1 comment
0 votes Vote

allow private predictions to be later made public

If you are the predictor, you should be able to later un-tick the private box, and let it become public.
trikeappsii, 18.11.2011, 23:17
0 comments
0 votes Vote

increase vertical spacing between sections

Please add more margin below each box that is headed by a black-background header. Currently, each black-background header is the same distance from the content it is heading and the end of the contents of the above, unrelated section. Fixing this...
trikeappsii, 18.11.2011, 23:19
0 comments
0 votes Vote

facebook/orkut application

Presence in facebook/orkut.
trikeappsii, 18.11.2011, 23:20
0 comments
0 votes Vote

should be able to judge by reply email

when you received a 'awaiting judgment' email, reply yes or No would be great rather than having to follow a link.
trikeappsii, 18.11.2011, 23:21
0 comments
0 votes Vote

Allow friends and semi-private predictions

Allow 'friends', and semi-private predictions shared only with friends. Some predictions influence outcomes, but their still fun to share. Let me define my 'friends', then share these with only my friends, not the general public.
trikeappsii, 18.11.2011, 23:45
0 comments
0 votes Vote

change composite estimations

Change composite estimations so they don't include multiple predictions from the same user. Right now on the main pages the combined estimation of all the users who make a prediction is displayed next to the prediction. But it looks like this is...
trikeappsii, 18.11.2011, 23:46
0 comments
0 votes Vote

allow adding response when creating prediction

you currently can't add text to the prediction you initially make. although you can always add another response, it'd be more streamlined, and less spammy if you could do it on creation.
trikeappsii, 18.11.2011, 23:48
0 comments
0 votes Vote

make a tab -view my predictions

It seems I can't view my predictions unless I click on my name. But instinctively hovering over the 'hello Miyo' bit was not where I would have gone to view my own predictions. If there's a tab that's near the view predictions that let's you see...
trikeappsii, 18.11.2011, 23:49
0 comments
0 votes Vote

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